An international tribunal’s recent ruling on the South China Sea leaves Taiwan in a sensitive position. In September last year, President Tsai Ing-wen, then the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate, told a diplomatic reception: “A future DPP administration will be committed to following…the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)…

Consideration of the economic outlook for 2016 also has to take the upcoming presidential and legislative elections into account. President Ma Ying-jeou was elected in 2008 on a platform of reinvigorating Taiwan’s economy and cooling tensions in the Taiwan Strait through unprecedented cross-Strait trade agreements. But after his reelection in 2012, public confidence in the…